Emotional adaptation during a crisis: decline in anxiety and depression after the initial weeks of COVID-19 in the United States.

Crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic are known to exacerbate depression and anxiety, though their temporal trajectories remain under-investigated. The present study aims to investigate fluctuations in depression and anxiety using the COVID-19 pandemic as a model crisis. A total of 1512 adults living in the United States enrolled in this online study beginning April 2, 2020 and were assessed weekly for 10 weeks (until June 4, 2020). We measured depression and anxiety using the Zung Self-Rating Depression scale and State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (state subscale), respectively, along with demographic and COVID-related surveys. Linear mixed-effects models were used to examine factors contributing to longitudinal changes in depression and anxiety. We found that depression and anxiety levels were high in early April, but declined over time. Being female, younger age, lower-income, and previous psychiatric diagnosis correlated with higher overall levels of anxiety and depression; being married additionally correlated with lower overall levels of depression, but not anxiety. Importantly, worsening of COVID-related economic impact and increase in projected pandemic duration exacerbated both depression and anxiety over time. Finally, increasing levels of informedness correlated with decreasing levels of depression, while increased COVID-19 severity (i.e., 7-day change in cases) and social media use were positively associated with anxiety over time. These findings not only provide evidence for overall emotional adaptation during the initial weeks of the pandemic, but also provide insight into overlapping, yet distinct, factors contributing to depression and anxiety throughout the first wave of the pandemic.

Containment of COVID-19: Simulating the impact of different policies and testing capacities for contact tracing, testing, and isolation.

Efficient contact tracing and testing are fundamental tools to contain the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We used multi-agent simulations to estimate the daily testing capacity required to find and isolate a number of infected agents sufficient to break the chain of transmission of SARS-CoV-2, so decreasing the risk of new waves of infections. Depending on the non-pharmaceutical mitigation policies in place, the size of secondary infection clusters allowed or the percentage of asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic (i.e., subclinical) infections, we estimated that the daily testing capacity required to contain the disease varies between 0.7 and 9.1 tests per thousand agents in the population. However, we also found that if contact tracing and testing efficacy dropped below 60% (e.g. due to false negatives or reduced tracing capability), the number of new daily infections did not always decrease and could even increase exponentially, irrespective of the testing capacity. Under these conditions, we show that population-level information about geographical distribution and travel behaviour could inform sampling policies to aid a successful containment, while avoiding concerns about government-controlled mass surveillance.